As Trump’s base shrinks, what will McConnell do? | Al Cross

Last fall’s election of Donald Trump was a surprise gift to Republicans, especially Sen. Mitch McConnell. It probably kept them from losing their advantage in the Senate, and thus ensured the Kentuckian would still be majority leader. It also gave them an opportunity to enact a wide-ranging legislative agenda.

Now the snowballing disaster that is President Trump threatens not only that agenda but Republicans’ majority in the House in the 2018 elections. Voters could elect a Democratic House primed to send the Senate articles of impeachment for a trial of the president on charges of, say, obstruction of justice.

The elections are a long way off, especially in a fast-moving political world that Trump has accelerated. But recent polls bode ill for the GOP, and Trump seems to be in a “downward spiral,” as one of the more candid congressional Republicans, Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee, said after the revelation that Trump shared highly classified information with Russian diplomats – not methods or sources, but in a way they could be revealed.

That bombshell came on the heels Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey, who then let it be known that Trump had tried to get him to stop the investigation of former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who remained in office for 18 days after the White House was told Russians could blackmail him. Then Trump contradicted his earlier explanation for the Comey firing, saying, yes, it was about the investigation of Russian interference in his election. 

The appointment of Comey predecessor Robert Mueller as special counsel to head an investigation has given Republicans a respite from Democrats’ demands for an independent investigation, but it also raises the stakes. Congressional committees can’t indict, and they may have trouble getting witnesses and information from people who fear Mueller's investigation. If he uncovers evidence of collusion between Russia and Trump’s campaign, that would be a disaster for Republicans, who see enough trouble ahead already.

Read more Al Cross

►Bevin a craven coward or Cleanup Crusader?

►Kentucky makes sharp, not hard right

►Touchy topics for McConnell, Trump

► Gov. Bevin conflated, confused health debate

Presidential approval has been the best indicator of overall results in midterm elections, and Trump’s approval in Real Clear Politics’ average of national polls is now the lowest ever, 39 percent.

Republicans have been wary of criticizing Trump because their political base remains highly supportive of him. In the May 14 Gallup poll, his approval was 84 percent among Republicans and 89 percent among conservative Republicans. Separating oneself from Trump could also mean separation from the base, and defeat in the next election.

But McConnell and Republicans are about to get jammed between the interests of their base and the interests of persuadable voters, and of the national interest. The president appears to be losing his non-Republican base.

A Monmouth University poll found that Trump’s support in the 300 counties he carried by single digits is only 34 percent, down from 41 percent in March. The Russia bombshell hit during the polling period, and it had an impact; afterward, a majority in those counties said Trump’s attitude toward Russia is a national-security risk.

A Quinnipiac University poll May 4-9 showed that 54 percent of Americans want Democrats to control the House, and only 38 percent want Republican control, the largest margin ever in that poll.

In results that could be reflected in Kentucky, the poll showed Trump’s support among whites without college degrees, perhaps the most important part of his base, had dropped to 47 percent from 57 percent. The percentage saying they disapprove strongly is now larger (40 percent) that those saying they strongly approve (34 percent). In midterm elections, which have lower turnout, voters with strong feelings matter more.

So, as he looks out on an increasingly bleak political landscape, what does Mitch McConnell have to say?

He doesn’t make excuses for Trump, but does try to divert attention from his outrages. All he really wants is someone who will sign the bills the Republican Congress sends him and not complicate the legislative process.

Read more Al Cross

► Bevin must be up-front for buy-in

► McConnell: Trump 'different,' not dangerous

► Ethics report good, not a ‘gotcha’ 

► Hoover certainly 'makes a statement' 

He said Tuesday on Bloomberg TV, “I think we could do with a little less drama from the White House on a lot of things so that we can focus on our agenda, which is deregulations, tax reform, [and] repealing and replacing Obamacare.” In the same interview, he contradicted Trump’s position on tax reform, saying it must not add to the deficit.

Asked the next day if he was concerned about Trump’s ability to handle classified information, McConnell paused two seconds and said “No.”

We don’t know what he tells Trump in private, but McConnell must temper his public remarks to maintain leverage with the White House, insulate his members from blowback by the base, and perhaps prevent Trump from going totally rogue and taking his base into a third party. That’s always a longshot in American politics, but no sitting president has tried to do it, so the odds have to be shorter for Trump.

McConnell has been gradually turning up the heat on the president, very gradually.

Before the recent turmoil, he apparently sent a sharp message to Trump via Vice President Mike Pence. Columnist David Rennie reported in The Economist that McConnell “scolded Mr. Pence over a Trump tweet that suggested a government shutdown might be a nifty idea. You don’t believe that, we don’t believe that, and that sort of tweet only makes our lives harder, Mr. McConnell reportedly told the vice president.” McConnell’s office declined to comment.

Having known McConnell for almost 30 years, I think he must know Trump has proven himself unfit for the presidency in any number of ways; he is an egomaniacal narcissist who has shown little intellectual command of the job and is a danger to the republic. If you doubt it, read the recent writings of conservative columnists David Brooks, Charles Krauthammer, Michael Gerson, Jennifer Rubin and Ross Douthat.

Given McConnell’s deeply political history and his responsibility as leader to maintain Republican control, we can hardly expect him to take the moral high ground versus Trump – unless the president’s base withers considerably. But there are more important things than politics, and the senator’s day of reckoning is coming closer.

Al Cross, a former CJ political writer, is director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues and associate professor in the University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Media. His opinions are his own, not UK's.